Abstract

 Using large-scale district-level data, the study examined the impact of climate change on crop yields during the period 1966-2011and predictsthe likely changes in yield sacross agro-climatic zones in Plateau Region. The future projections reveal that by 2080s, cotton yield is expected to decline by 7.18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills.By the end of the century, sorghum yield is projected to decline up to 19 percent in Central Plateau & Hills and increase by 18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. Under midterm period, rapeseed & mustard yield is likely to reduce by 3.44 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. By 2050s maize yield is expected to reduce by 3.33 percent in Central Plateau & Hills. By 2080s, wheat yield is projected to decline by 5.44, percent in SouthernPlateau & Hills. The results suggest that impact of climate change on crop yield varies across regions, hence it is pertinent to formulate adaptation strategies and farm practices suitable to the crop and location specific needs that mitigate the likely exposure of food production and livelihoods to climate variations.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the prominent factors that directly affect agriculture production and farm livelihoods
In this study we tried to explore the impact of climate change on crop yields at spatially disaggregated scale using ACZ classification in the Plateau Region
Our findings revealthat most of the kharif and rabi crop yields were adversely impacted by climatic changes across the zones during the period 1966-2011
Summary
Climate change is one of the prominent factors that directly affect agriculture production and farm livelihoods. Changes in rainfall and temperature are expected to adversely impact crop yields, posing significant threat to the food production (Nelson et al, 2010;Bal and Minhas, 2017,Balvanshi and Tiwari, 2019).Under different climate scenarios several studies that examined the impact of change in rainfall and temperatures on crop yields indicate a decline in rice, wheat and maize in the country (Guiteras, 2009).regional differences in terms of agro-climatic conditions, farm centric adaptation measures, economic and institutional capacities, regulate the vulnerability of agriculture to climatic variations.This produces spatial differentials inthe magnitude of the climate impact on agriculture production and productivity (Singh et al, 2019).Understanding the sensitivity of agriculture productivity to climate change is a prelude in developing informed technologies (Jalota et al, 2013) and programs that ameliorate the likely effects of climate change.Most of the previous assessments have extrapolated climate impact on crop yields at a national and state level; there remains a considerable uncertainty over the likely climate impact for homologous environments.Building on these considerations, the present study aims to assess the impact of climate change on major kharif and rabi crops, across agro-climatic zones(ACZs) in Plateau Region during the period 1966-2011 and projects the likely changes in crop yield for three time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s)
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