Spatial and seasonal variation of livestock depredation by large carnivores in the Pamir Mountains of northern Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractThe livestock depredation by large carnivores is a main cause for increasing human–wildlife conflicts (HWCs) and is one of the prime challenges for carnivore's conservation and a major economic concern to livestock‐dependent communities around wildlife habitats. Thus, understanding the patterns and trends of livestock depredation may contribute to better understanding of the mechanisms underlying HWCs and to mitigating HWCs. HWCs characterized by livestock depredation by large carnivores are prevalent in northern Pakistan, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly investigated. This study was conducted in 2018 in the Khunjerab Valley and Shimshal Valley of the Pamir region to evaluate the spatial and seasonal variation and impact of livestock depredation by carnivores. Data were collected on livestock depredation and its associated economic impact through semi‐structured interviews of randomly selected households in the two valleys. The livestock in Shimshal Valley was more susceptible to large carnivores’ depredation (233 heads per year) than in Khunjerab Valley (125 heads per year). This spatial variation in livestock depredation was reflective of the difference in the socio‐economic conditions and physical locations between the two valleys. More livestock depredation took place in winter in Khunjerab Valley, while more livestock depredation occurred in summer in Shimshal Valley, mainly because of different grazing systems in the two valleys. The total economic loss incurred due to large carnivores’ depredation was US$ 76,063 in Shimshal Valley, as compared to US$ 34,175 in Khunjerab Valley in 2018. The average economic loss per household was US$ 950.8, accounting for nearly 30% of the household annual income in Shimshal Valley in 2018. A higher proportion of participants in Shimshal Valley (83%) in comparison to Khunjerab Valley (69%) expressed a negative attitude towards wild carnivores. The study concludes that Shimshal Valley, remotely located and having comparatively marginal income opportunities, was more reliant on agro‐pastoralism and thus more vulnerable to the economic repercussions of livestock depredation by wild carnivores. Thus, such measures as improvement in road transportation and livestock management are in urgent need to better manage HWCs in Shimshal Valley.