Spatial analysis of climatic and dispersion characteristics of Xylella fastidiosa outbreak by insect vectors

Abstract

• A risk of X. fastidiosa outbreak was analyzed by climatic and spread characteristics. • Suitable climates for X. fastidiosa and insect vectors were analyzed. • Spread patterns were spatially investigated based on distances among occurrences. • X. fastidiosa and insect vectors commonly share climatic preference and topology. • X. fastidiosa can spread through anthropogenic and natural way by insect vectors. Xylella fastidiosa is a pathogen that causes fatal plant diseases and damage to horticultural crops. Establishing the basic parameters is necessary to assess the risk of disease outbreaks as there are concerns about the spread of X. fastidiosa. This is done by analyzing the climatic characteristics and distribution patterns of X. fastidiosa and related insect vectors. In this study, we aimed to derive the common climatic characteristics of X. fastidiosa and three major insect vectors by using a statistical density function for four climatic factors. In addition, the distance between the occurrence areas was calculated spatiotemporally and classified into natural and anthropogenic spread. The optimal climatic conditions identified for X. fastidiosa and the insect vectors were similar, suggesting a high potential for X. fastidiosa spread when both occur in a neighborhood area. X. fastidiosa spread mostly depends on anthropogenic pathways, but natural spread by insect vectors could increase. This study provides necessary insights for the risk assessment of X. fastidiosa spread based on climate similarity and spread patterns.