Space weather influence on power systems: prediction, risk analysis, and modeling

Abstract

This paper concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements with complex characterizations for damages using a physical model of solid state lasers and a predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. Focusing is given mainly on a solid-state laser model, mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and software for the modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. The probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented considering some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers in order to cost-effectively improve their safety and performance. This method is based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and on the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose a new dynamical-information approach for the radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements affected by space radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling ionizing radiation influences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization techniques. Black-box models of space ionizing radiation influences on laser elements are developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. The mathematical model’s inputs are the radiation influences on laser systems and the output parameters are dynamic characteristics of the solid laser.