Abstract
ABSTRACT This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterizationof damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather.The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) a solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical modelsfor dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. Aprobabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministicand stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis methodaimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-eectively improving theirsafety and performance. This method is based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and theexpected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose a new dynamical-information approach for radiationdamage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: (a)lasermodeling, modeling of ionizing radiation inuences on laser elements, (b) probabilistic risk assessment methods,and (c) risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levelsthe following methods are used: (a) statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and(e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation inuence onlaser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called black box orinput-output model, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the systems output in response to changesin its inputs. The model inputs are radiation inuences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamicalcharacteristics of the solid laser.Keywords: risk analysis, laser elements, damage, global optimization, prediction
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