Abstract
In this study, a statistical analysis is carried out to reveal the current earthquake potential in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. For this purpose, a space-time assessing based on the recent changes in Gutenberg-Richter b-value, seismic quiescence Z-value, cumulative moment, annual probability and recurrence time of earthquakes is achieved. Temporal variation of b-value indicates that average b-value decreased from 1.25±0.02 between 2002 and 2010 to 1.08±0.02 between 2011 and 2015. A clear quiescence in the seismic moment in recent years may be a clue foretelling the occurrence of an intense event. Annual probability of the earthquakes between 3.5 and 4.0 magnitude levels exhibits a value equal to and larger than 30. Recurrence time of the earthquakes has a value between 2.0 and 3.0 years for magnitude level of 6.0, and a value between 6.0 and 7.0 years for magnitude level of 7.0. A significant decrease in b-value and clear quiescence anomalies in Z-value at the beginning of 2015 are observed in the several same regions. These areas cover the Central Anatolia Fault Zone, Malatya and Ovacık faults, the southeastern part of the Eastern Anatolia Fault Zone, and the junction of the Eastern Anatolia and Dead Sea Fault Zones. In these anomaly regions, a decreasing trend in b-value may be an indicator of stress increases and an increasing trend in Z-value may show the quiescence areas before the next earthquake occurrences. As a remarkable fact, these areas in the Eastern Anatolia region may be interpreted as one of the most likely locations for the major earthquakes in the future.
Highlights
The space-time assessment of earthquake activity is an important tool in seismicity studies and some valuable results have been provided to the literature by different authors
Wyss and Habermann (1988) made a definition of seismic quiescence phenomenon in the following way: “The seismic quiescence means that an important decrease in the average earthquake activity rate as compared to declustered background activity rate in the same crustal volume may be observed before the occurrences of some main shocks
Seismic and tectonic assessments of temporal changes in b and Z-values, cumulative seismic moment, annual probability and recurrence time of the earthquakes are evaluated in this study and it is aimed to present some useful clues for the future earthquake potential in the Eastern Anatolia (EA)
Summary
The space-time assessment of earthquake activity is an important tool in seismicity studies and some valuable results have been provided to the literature by different authors. Since the duration of quiescence depends strongly on tectonic structure and probably on the loading rate, the measurement of earthquake activity rate may be important to reveal the future earthquake potential These types of parameters have been used in many seismicity studies for different parts of the world and Turkey (e.g., Katsumata and Kasahara, 1999; Cao and Gao, 2002; Öztürk et al 2008; Polat et al 2008; Joseph et al 2011; Öztürk, 2011; 2015a; Öztürk and Bayrak, 2012; Rehman et al 2015; Negi and Paul, 2015; Yadav et al 2015; Singh, 2016; Tsapanos et al 2014; 2016). A north-south compressional tectonic regime is dominant in the area to the east of the KTJ This region is characterized by two combined strike-slip faults of sinistral and dextral character which is parallel to the NAFZ and EAFZ (Bozkurt, 2001). The major tectonics of EA are formed by the conjugate strike-slip fault systems
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