Statistical Analysis Of Fundamental Seismotectonic Parameters For Future Earthquake Occurrences In Tunceli Province Of Turkey

Abstract

Summary An evaluation based on Gutenberg-Richter b-value, fractal dimension Dc-value, completeness magnitude Mc-value, annual probability and recurrence time of earthquakes is carried out for Tunceli province of Turkey. Earthquake catalog covers the years between 21 September 1970 and 30 December 2016, and contains 5462 earthquakes with magnitude equal to and greater than 1.1. Magnitude completeness is estimated as 2.8 and b-value is found as b=0.98+/-0.01. This b-value is smaller than average value of b=1.0 given for Gutenberg-Richter relation. So, this low b-value may be an indicator of stress to build up over time at the beginning of 2017. Dc-value is obtained as 1.63+/-0.04 with 95% confidence limits. This high Dc-value indicates that seismicity in Tunceli and vicinity is more clustered at larger scales or in smaller areas. Annual probability of the earthquakes between 4.5 and 5.5 magnitude levels exhibits a value between 1 and 10. Recurrence time of the earthquakes has a value between 10 and 30 years for magnitude levels between 5.5 and 6.0, and a value between 30 and 100 years for magnitude levels between 6.0 and 6.5. Consequently, this part of Turkey may have an earthquake potential for the possibility of intense earthquake occurrences in the next future.