Soviet Jewish Emigration at a Crossroads

Abstract

Soviet Jewish emigration is at a crossroads today. Conditions that have impelled more than three-quarters of a million Jews to leave the USSR during the past 45 years have radically changed in recent months, altering the character and dynamics of the exodus and raising important questions concerning its future. Will the current flight of Jews continue, will it grow, or will new developments in the Soviet successor states and elsewhere slow the exodus or end it altogether? Whichever course is taken, what will its consequences be for the emigrants, the former USSR, and the West? The events that have led Soviet Jewish emigration to this juncture are well known because they have been widely reported in the press. Their ramifications for the movement are not as well understood, however, because they have not been studied until now. This article examines the changes in recent Soviet Jewish emigration and assesses their implications for the future. Soviet Emigration Until Now The recent changes in Soviet Jewish emigration can be best understood if they are viewed in historical perspective that is, against the background of the movement's evolution until now. Since the exodus beganin 1948, more than 778,000 Soviet Jews have emigrated to the West-two thirds of them to Israel, nearly onethird to the United States, and the remainder to other countries (see the table). Between 1948 and 1989 the number of emigrants averaged fewer than 10,000 persons annually. As a result of Gorbachev's reforms, however, the level rose to unprecedented heights in 1990 and 1991. Until 1990, the emigrants' motives for leaving were threefold. Religious and Zionist Jews to wanted to return to Israel, while others left to escape persecution and discrimination or to seek freedom and a better life in the West. By 1990, these reasons for leaving began to change. Most religious and