Sounding-derived parameters associated with tornado occurrence in Poland and Universal Tornadic Index

Abstract

This study is mainly devoted to operational meteorology, to improve tornado forecast in Poland and create a Universal Tornadic Index formula. A study is focusing on climatology of sounding-derived parameters associated with tornadoes in Poland and their potential value for tornado forecasting. The data was collected from soundings made in 10 stations in and around Poland which were closely in time and space connected with tornado occurrence. The main aim of the study was to analyze the thermodynamic and kinematic parameters derived from soundings and formulate an index. The information about tornado incidents was taken from media reports and the European Severe Weather Database for the years 1977–2012. Total of 97 tornado cases were divided according to their strength for significant (F2/F3), weak (F0/F1) and unrated cases, and also according to their environmental surface temperature, for warm (>18°C) and cold (<18°C) tornadoes. As it turned out, depending on the temperature, tornadoes tended to present different environmental conditions for tornadogenesis. In warm cases, the most important factor was instability while for cold cases it was dynamic wind field. It was also proven that significant tornadoes in Poland occur in conditions accompanied by high moisture content, moderate instability and high wind shear conditions. The results of this study were used to create a Universal Tornadic Index designed to forecast activity in warm and cold, and weak and strong tornadic environments. The quality of this index was tested for the period with increased tornado activity in Poland from 2008 to 2010.