Some Agents are Freer than Others: Variation in the Reelection Incentive, Agency Loss, and the Timing of Democratic Interstate Conflict

Abstract

I ask whether variations in electoral systems affect the conflict behavior of democratic leaders, specifically the timing of that conflict. Building from theories of political accountability and agency loss, I argue that the degree of agency loss coupled with variations in the principals that hold leaders accountable affects the timing of conflict in democratic systems. The results confirm the expectation that leaders in candidate‐centered systems are more likely to “gamble for resurrection” as the next election approaches than are party‐centered executives given the differences in the ability of their principals to select, sanction, and monitor them.