Solar Power Forecasting Using Deep Learning Techniques

Abstract

The recent rapid and sudden growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a future challenge for the electricity sector agents responsible for the coordination and distribution of electricity given the direct dependence of this type of technology on climatic and meteorological conditions. Therefore, the development of models that allow reliable future prediction, in the short term, of solar PV generation will be of paramount importance, in order to maintain a balanced and comprehensive operation. This article discusses a method for predicting the generated power, in the short term, of photovoltaic power plants, by means of deep learning techniques. To fulfill the above, a deep learning technique based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm is evaluated with respect to its ability to forecast solar power data. An evaluation of the performance of the LSTM network has been conducted and compared it with the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) network using: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ). The prediction result shows that the LSTM network gives the best results for each category of days. Thus, it provides reliable information that enables more efficient operation of photovoltaic power plants in the future. The binomial formed by the concepts of deep learning and energy efficiency seems to have a promising future, especially regarding promoting energy sustainability, decarburization, and the digitization of the electricity sector.