Soil sampling uncertainty on arable fields estimated from reference sampling and a collaborative trial

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On three fields of arable land of (3–6)×104 m2, simple reference sampling was performed by taking up to 195 soil increments from each field applying a systematic sampling strategy. From the analytical data reference values for 15 elements were established, which should represent the average analyte mass fraction of the areas. A “point selection standard deviation” was estimated, from which a prediction of the sampling uncertainty was calculated for the application of a standard sampling protocol (X-path across the field, totally 20 increments for a composite sample). Predicted mass fractions and associated uncertainties are compared with the results of a collaborative trial of 18 experienced samplers, who had applied the standard sampling protocol on these fields. In some cases, bias between reference and collaborative values is found. Most of these biases can be explained by analyte heterogeneity across the area, in particular on one field, which was found to be highly heterogeneous for most nutrient elements. The sampling uncertainties estimated from the reference sampling were often somewhat smaller compared to those from the collaborative trial. It is suspected that the influence of sample preparation and the variation due to sampler were responsible for these differences. For the applied sampling protocol, the uncertainty contribution from sampling generally is in the same range as the uncertainty contribution from analysis. From these findings, some conclusions were drawn, especially about the consequences for a sampling protocol, if in routine sampling a demanded “certainty of trueness” for the measurement result should be met.