Abstract
Climate change is causing significant shifts in tree species distributions to higher elevations and latitudes. Seed germination and seedling establishment are particularly important steps in tree range expansion under warmer conditions, yet seedling establishment is influenced by a range of factors beyond temperature, including herbivory, microenvironment, and the timing and amount of precipitation. We conducted an experiment to assess how augmented precipitation regimes, wildlife herbivory, and microclimate influence germination and first-season survival of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) near the upper elevational limit of its range in the southern Rocky Mountains. Germination was strongly influenced by moisture, with over three times higher germination in watered treatments. Seedling survival was similar across watered treatments but was negatively associated with microenvironments with higher maximum temperatures. These results indicate that soil moisture effects on germination and the negative impact of hot growing-season temperatures on seedling survival limit initial seedling establishment in Douglas-fir, even at the cooler and wetter end of its range, suggesting that the planting of this species will be most successful in cooler and wetter microsites. Taken together, this study suggests that continued warming and projected increases in droughts may strongly limit Douglas-fir regeneration and thus its ability to shift upwards with climate change.
Published Version
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