Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU

Herib Blanco,Jonatan J Gómez Vilchez,Wouter Nijs,Christian Thiel,André Faaij

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109349

Abstract

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) currently have the challenge of high CAPEX mainly associated to the fuel cell. This study investigates strategies to promote FCEV deployment and overcome this initial high cost by combining a detailed simulation model of the passenger transport sector with an energy system model. The focus is on an energy system with 95% CO2 reduction by 2050. Soft-linking by taking the powertrain shares by country from the simulation model is preferred because it considers aspects such as car performance, reliability and safety while keeping the cost optimization to evaluate the impact on the rest of the system. This caused a 14% increase in total cost of car ownership compared to the cost before soft-linking. Gas reforming combined with CO2 storage can provide a low-cost hydrogen source for FCEV in the first years of deployment. Once a lower CAPEX for FCEV is achieved, a higher hydrogen cost from electrolysis can be afforded. The policy with the largest impact on FCEV was a purchase subsidy of 5 k€ per vehicle in the 2030–2034 period resulting in 24.3 million FCEV (on top of 67 million without policy) sold up to 2050 with total subsidies of 84 bln€. 5 bln€ of R&D incentives in the 2020–2024 period increased the cumulative sales up to 2050 by 10.5 million FCEV. Combining these two policies with infrastructure and fuel subsidies for 2030–2034 can result in 76 million FCEV on the road by 2050 representing more than 25% of the total car stock. Country specific incentives, split of demand by distance or shift across modes of transport were not included in this study.

Highlights

To have a likely probability of staying within a global warming of 2 °C by end of this century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be reduced by 40–70% on a global basis by 2050
Results are divided in three sections: (1) transport in context of the energy system (Section 6.1) (2) soft-linking process, how it affects the stand-alone output of each model and the impact it has on the rest of the energy system (Sections 6.2 and 6.3); (3) Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) deployment to identify drivers, most effective policies and the level of investment or subsidies needed (Section 6.4)
It is expected that the higher zero emission vehicle (ZEV) efficiency leads to lower energy consumption and the share from passenger transport is put in context of the total transport energy demand (Fig. 5b)

Summary

Introduction

To have a likely probability of staying within a global warming of 2 °C by end of this century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be reduced by 40–70% on a global basis by 2050. Cumulative emissions need to stay between 550 and 1300 GtCO2e (2011–2050) whereas annual emissions today are ~50 GtCO2e [1] This is translated into 80–95% CO2 reduction for the European Union (EU) (compared to 1990) [2], corresponding to a less strict target of 60% for the transport sector2 [3] considering its more difficult nature to decarbonize [4]. Transport is the only sector exhibiting an increase in CO2 emissions when compared to 1990 (+23% in 2015 [6]) Strategies to reach those targets are increased efficiency, alternative fuels with a lower CO2 footprint, modal shift (e.g. from private cars to public transport) and reduced need for travel (e.g. urban planning, home-office) [1,7,8]. There is the need to introduce alternative powertrains in the transport sector to improve energy independence, since more than 80% of the oil is imported in the EU with an import bill of 400 bln €/yr (at an oil price of 100 $/bbl) [9]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion