Socio-political destabilization dynamics features in MENA monarchies before and after the Arab spring

Abstract

“Arab Spring” had a large effect on the political stability of Arab republics and led to regimes overthrow in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. However, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) monarchical regimes managed to survive the period of severe turbulence. Much has been written on the problems of the “Arab Spring” effect on the trajectory of socio-political and economic development of the Arab countries since 2011, although nothing has been said on the dynamics of political destabilization of Arab monarchies as a whole and in comparison with MENA republics as well as about the features of that dynamics. So, this paper aims to fulfill this gap. Using descriptive statistics as a pilot method and CNTS, Global Terrorism and Mass Mobilization in Autocracies databases we show that the monarchies are in general more stable than non-monarchies of MENA since their independence. The paper also demonstrates that those MENA monarchies which suffer from internal Sunni-Shia conflicts, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, possess the highest mean destabilization level among all MENA monarchies because of its “bloody” character. The most liberal parliamentary Arab monarchies like Kuwait, Jordan and Morocco have a relatively high destabilization dynamics, but they are predominantly of a mass mobilization type. Other monarchies, Oman, UAE and Qatar, demonstrate the lowest destabilization levels during the period after the “Arab Spring”.