Socio-political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic as challenges to the legitimacy of social order in Ukraine

Abstract

The article analyzes the results of a sociological study of the socio-political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukrainian society. The economic and social difficulties faced by people during the lockdowns have, as expected, caused dissatisfaction with the actions of state institutions. Public opinion on the government's efforts to combat the pandemic was based on its chaotic, inconsistent and often belated actions regarding the introduction of quarantine, mass vaccination and information policy. Our assumption was that the ineffective opposition of the Ukrainian authorities to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a negative perception of Ukrainians’ democratic legitimacy, their distrust of state institutions, growing social tensions, and increased support for paternalism and authoritarianism. To test this hypothesis, the dynamics of assessments of the government's actions in the confrontation with the pandemic, the determinants of trust in state institutions, attitudes on ways to ensure living standards and means of maintaining order in Ukraine, protest potential were analyzed. The empirical analysis was conducted on the basis of a sociological survey conducted by the sociological firm HUMAN RESEARCH from July 28 to August 7, 2021 as part of a research project of the Institute of Sociology of NAS of Ukraine “Social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of social transformation in Ukraine: sociological approach” under a grant from the National Research Foundation of Ukraine. Methods of multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression were used to empirically assess the influence of explanatory variables on dependent variables. According to the analysis, the main challenge to the legitimacy of the social order in Ukraine was the decline in confidence in the central government, mainly due to negative assessments of its response to the coronavirus pandemic. However, there have been no significant shifts in the mass consciousness in support of paternalism and authoritarianism. The small share of support for these attitudes has little to do with assessments of the government's response to the pandemic. The increase in protest potential is also little associated with assessments of the government's response to the pandemic.