Social vulnerability assessment to flood hazard in Souss basin, Morocco

Abstract

The concept of vulnerability is now embedded into multiple disaster-related disciplinary theories and is currently incorporated in various ways concerning disaster risk management. The Souss basin has witnessed many intensive extreme flooding events during the last two decades because it is located in a semi-arid to arid climate. The area is quite vulnerable, and negative impacts have gotten increasingly alarming. The susceptibility to this risk is accentuated not only by the shorter intense rainfall but also by the rapid population growth, uncontrolled land use, anthropogenic actions, and recent environmental fluctuations. These factors affect both the potential hazards and general vulnerability. In this study and given the current context, we developed a methodology to assess social vulnerability towards flooding in the area based on 26 socioeconomic indicators from the database of the Last general census of population and housing (GPHC) in 2014. These indicators aim to describe the spatial variability of the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) using principal component analysis (CPA) and GIS. Thus, the SoVI, with values ranging from 0 to 4, is a powerful tool for better quantifying social vulnerability and highlighting the potential impact on urban and rural communities. The result shows that few urban areas have a low average vulnerability index (1.76–2.33) while most rural areas have a higher average of SoVI ranging from 3.56 to 4 in this area. Therefore, it will serve as a basis for evacuation plans to anticipate and prevent flooding risks. This statement indicates that social-economic indicators enhancement is advisable in this area.