Social Tension: the Possibility of Conflict Diagnosis (on the Example of St. Petersburg)

Abstract

IntroductionThe processes observed today in the Russian society, form an objective need to put the conflicts of social relations in a certain framework. To this end it is necessary to develop an effective methodology and tools of conflict diagnosis, contributing to the prevention of conflicts. The urgent need for conflict diagnosis is determined by the dynamism, transience and interdependence of social, economic and political processes in the modern world and in the Russian society.In this study to measure conflict potential of the modern Russian society, we turned to the concept of social tension. The novelty of the research project is to develop tools to identify key indicators of social tension in the urban community. This was the main purpose of the study. Thus, the research work focused on the social tension. As the objectives of the study were the following:* to identify the basic characteristics of the concept of social tension;* to identify the basic indicators of social tensions;* to measure the values of the main indicators of social tension in different strata of the urban population.Social tension is quite often seen in connection with conflicts. Meanwhile, it precedes conflicts, but not always turns into a conflict. The social tension is a phenomenon which in one form or another always presents in the society. The certain elements of the concept of social tension are considered in the works of a number of authors (Parsons, 1972; Orru, 1983; Smelser, 1994; Galtung, 1998; Stepanov, 1999; Kukonkov, 2004; Merton, 2006; Nagaytsev, Pustovalova, 2010; Baranov et al., 2011).In the literature dedicated to the study of conflicts and social tension (Gurr, 1970; Kotkin, 2014; Chakravarty, 2015) a special attention is paid to the concept of relative deprivation. The authors of this approach believe that a social order is stable when different layers of the society maintained a balance between the desired goals and means of its achieving. Gurr considers relative deprivation as a discrepancy between value expectations (goods and conditions of life which, in the opinion of the people, they can rightfully claim for) and value capabilities (goods and conditions that they, in their opinion, can obtain or retain). The deprivation results in: a decrease in capacities with the growth of expectations, a decrease in capacities while maintaining expectations at the same level and the preservation of capacities with the growth of expectations level. The accumulated social tension reveals itself in protest actions (Gurr, 1970).1. Conceptualization of the problem of social tension1.1.Some characteristics of the crisis situation in RussiaThe current situation in Russia has posed the scientific community the task of studying its conflict potential. It is known that the risk of conflict is that they can lead not only to positive but also to negative consequences, concerning both separate individuals and society as a whole. However, a mandatory escalation in the case of a conflict situation is not the only possible scenario. Conflicts should be prevented, i.e. to forestall it at the generation stage, which will allow avoiding of negative consequences and will reduce the cost of its management. Control over the conflict involves deliberate steps in this regard and includes a number of actions: prevention, or averting, forecasting, settlement, resolution. One of the key concepts used in the study of conflict is the social tension. Below we will return to a more detailed analysis of this concept.A relevance of attention to the conflict potential of the Russian situation is determined by a structurally new crisis in the Russian history (see Figure 1).Consider the basic characteristics, which allow defining the current situation as a crisis. This crisis, unlike previous ones, was developed by peculiarities of the institutional design of modern Russia, its political climate. …