Relationship of Protest Activity with the Social Tension Dynamics in the South-East Asian Countries

Abstract

The article is devoted to testing the method of forecasting major conflicts in countries of Southeast Asia. The method is based on the assumption of the social tension growth in the last years before the event. Tensions are not definitely linked to protest activity. They contribute to socio-political or ethno-political mobilization, which can lead to the destabilization of society. Therefore, with high rates of tension growth in the country, the probability of serious conflicts increases. For a quantitative assessment of the social tension in the countries of Southeast Asia, the most relevant statistical indicator is the suicides number. We assume that the five-year growth rate of the tension indicator (the level of conflict) exceeding a certain threshold value indicates the possibility of major protests. The calculations carried out for the Southeast Asian countries made it possible to estimate the probability of major conflicts with an accuracy close to the machine learning methods. The use of the proposed indicator for the analysis of socio-political processes in the countries of Southeast Asia made it possible to explain their similarities in countries with different economic, demographic, political and cultural characteristics, i. e. obtain additional information characterizing in these countries the stability or conflict risk.