Social Risk Assessment from Natural Hazards Using Fuzzy Logic

Abstract

The assessment of the social risk is a major issue for the responsible risk management and the sustainable regional development of SouthWestern Bulgaria. The paper presents a fuzzy logic model for social risk estimation from natural hazards in the SW Bulgaria region, based on the available information sources and the expert knowledge. The risk assessment problem is defined as a multicriterial task that evaluates several input variables (indicators for natural hazards and social vulnerability). A hierarchical fuzzy logic system with five inputs and one output is designed in the Matlab software environment using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and Simulink. The simulation investigations are done for six areas in SW Bulgaria. This fuzzy system is part of the Web Integrated Information System for risk management of natural disasters which will be developed.