Social learning and the complex contagion of political symbols in Twitter: The case of the yellow ribbon in Catalonia

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically test whether the spread of political symbols in Twitter is due to complex contagion. We analyzed behavior consisting of editing the Twitter account name to include an icon with a yellow ribbon; a symbol that represents the demand for the release of imprisoned Catalan politicians and civil leaders. To test this hypothesis, we used a behavioral, non-reactive, relational, and dynamic dataset of a large sample of potential users. First, we show that the probability of displaying a ribbon is associated with the proportion of peers who also display it (friends that share their support for the political cause). Second, we rule out alternative explanations as simple contagion and homophily. To rule out simple contagion, we run three empirically calibrated, agent-based simulations. We use our dataset to rule out homophily. And third, we suggest that adoption cannot be interpreted as the result of a compliance mechanism or as the result of normative pressures. Instead, the most plausible micro-level generative mechanism that leads to a complex contagion pattern is a peer learning process. Our study makes several contributions to the field. We show how digital data can be effectively used to identify new explananda and test the plausibility of competing behavioral explanatory mechanisms. We also contribute to the development of the theory of complex contagions. Our study widens the set of conditions for complex contagion and the set of reasons to explain why complex contagion might occur.