Skill of Operational Dynamical Models in Cyclone Prediction Out to Five-Days Range during ERICA

Abstract

Abstract Investigating the skill of prediction of surface cyclones by operational models to ranges of five days, we studied the central and western North Atlantic region for the December 1988 through February 1989 period of the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). Output was evaluated from the medium-range forecast (MRF) model of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and (as available) from the models of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Operational manual NMC analyses were used for verification. For the MRF model, the correlation coefficient between predicted and analyzed 24-h deepening or filling was 0.91 for day 0–1, decreasing to 0.57 for day 4–5. There was little bias. The other models yielded lower values at a given range, with an underestimate of deepening. Explosive deepening was identified by all three models at all ranges with at least small skill, on the basis of the Conditional Success Ind...