Impact of Assimilating Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations on River Valley Fog Prediction

Abstract

Abstract The impact of assimilating targeted Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations on the prediction of radiation and river-valley fog is assessed using Observing System Experiments (OSEs). Multi-rotor UAS were deployed during FOGMAP (Frequent in situ Observations Above Ground for Modeling and Advanced Prediction of fog) which took place during the summer of 2022 in northern Kentucky. Targeted UAS missions were flown to sample the spatio-temporal variability of temperature and moisture in the vicinity of the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. During each mission the UAS performed near-continuous profiling at two locations between the surface to 120 m AGL throughout the night. Data denial experiments were performed using the Ensemble Kalman Adjustment Filter available in NSF NCAR’s Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) to determine the impact of assimilating UAS observations on the skill of analyses and forecasts issued during potential fog events. Simulations that only assimilated conventional observations tended to have a dry bias in the analyses and forecasts. The dry bias in the analyses was reduced in experiments that assimilated UAS observations leading to improved probabilistic predictions of fog. Sensitivity tests revealed that the ensemble mean analyses were improved when assimilating UAS observations of specific humidity rather than relative humidity (RH) due to the existence of a cold bias near the surface and the negative covariance between RH and temperature. It was also found that either the assumed observation error variance of (1 g kg−1)2 or the ensemble spread of the background specific humidity was too large since their sum tended to overestimate the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the predicted ensemble mean values.