Abstract
Extreme sea level rise seriously impacts habitation and is indicative of changes in primary production in the North Pacific. Because of its rising trend associated with global warming, skillful seasonal-to-interannual predictions have become increasingly valuable to guide the introduction of suitable adaptation measures that help us reduce the risks of socio-economic losses. Here, we have used a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model called “SINTEX-F” to revisit the potential predictability of sea level anomalies at a lead of up to about two years. Skillful prediction is found mainly in the tropical Pacific as shown in previous work. Here, we found a new skillful prediction region in the North Pacific (30o-40oN, 180oW-150oW) at about two years lead time. We also analyzed the co-variability among ensemble members and found the long-lasting ENSO/ENSO-Modoki in the tropical Pacific seems to contribute to the predictability source. The result may be useful to develop systematic and synergistic attempts to predict marine ecosystem responses to regional and global climate variations.
Highlights
The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services for its surrounding countries including Canada, U.S, China, Russia, Korea, and Japan
Coastlines of the North Pacific are seriously damaged by extreme sea level rise (Nicholls et al, 2007)
In addition to the rising sea level trend associated with the global warming, extreme sea level events occur in association with natural climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the North Pacific (Mantua et al, 1997; Zhang et al, 1997; McGowan et al, 1998; Lombard et al, 2005; Di Lorenzo et al, 2008; Hamlington et al, 2019; Han et al, 2019)
Summary
The North Pacific marine ecosystems are primary sources of ecosystem services (e.g., fishing, shipping, and recreation) for its surrounding countries including Canada, U.S, China, Russia, Korea, and Japan. Coastlines of the North Pacific are seriously damaged by extreme sea level rise (Nicholls et al, 2007). In addition to the rising sea level trend associated with the global warming, extreme sea level events occur in association with natural climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the North Pacific (Mantua et al, 1997; Zhang et al, 1997; McGowan et al, 1998; Lombard et al, 2005; Di Lorenzo et al, 2008; Hamlington et al, 2019; Han et al, 2019). To address relatively short-term risks, stakeholders desire a forecast of monthly/seasonal rising or falling sea levels caused by those climate variabilities.
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