Size and Ocean Distribution of the World Merchant Fleet: Present and Future

Abstract

As part of a study of maritime mobileSatellite Service Requirements, Frequency Planning, Modulation and Interference Analysis under U. S. Coast Guard contract DOT-CG-00505A, a determination was made of the population and density distribution of the world merchant fleet over the time period 1969 to 1980. This paper is an abridgement of the 150 page report covering this aspect of the study. The study compares various information sources for establishing the fleet population by size and vessel service category. It then examines each service category and postulates a method for distributing the ships along their trade routes. In this manner it was found that out of some 50,000 ships larger than 100 gt in 1969, approximately 21,000 were at sea. The distribution is shown on world charts. The method is compared to a more gross method where ships, regardless of service category, were tracked by their daily reported arrivals and departures for nearly two months. The methods agreed within less than 1%. A third method, updating a previous study, agreed within 6%. Historical trends and expert forecasts of ship trade in all important commodities are examined and applied to determine a forecasted merchant fleet growth and distribution, taking into account trends in ship size. While the total number of ships is projected to grow by about 8% by 1980, improvements in efficiency show the “at-sea” population to grow by 40%.