SIR FRACTIONAL ORDER OF COVID-19 by ADAMS BASHFORTH-MOULTON METHOD

Abstract

This study addresses a research gap by introducing fractional order derivatives into the SIR model for tracking COVID-19 in Malaysia. The Caputo sense fractional derivative and the Adams Bashforth Moulton method are employed to analyse the COVID-19 behavior and stability. By manipulating fractional order derivative values, this study investigates their impact on key SIR parameters, observing that lower values accelerate the attainment of asymptotic behavior in populations. The stability analysis reveals two equilibrium points: an unstable disease-free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium within the system. This pioneering exploration of fractional order derivatives in the context of Malaysia's COVID-19 modeling contributes valuable insights, enhancing our understanding the behavior of the disease.