Sino-Japanese Contention Over the Diaoyu Islands/Senkakus: A Hypothetical Analysis

Abstract

There are still some hot, sticky issues in Northeast Asia, including one which involves the Diaoyu Islands/Senkakus (Senkaku Retto/Gunto)/Pinnacle Islands, which are rich in fish, oil reserves, and other valuable natural resources. Many recent developments deserve closer observation, as they have some bearings on the Diaoyu Islands dispute. The article provides various scenarios, detailing the circumstances in which Japan will fire the first shot in the Diaoyu Islands (Senkakus) waters and those in which it will not. Of course, there could be ambivalent circumstances. The author argues that before 2010, Tokyo will probably not fire the first shot. It is easier to find reasons to support the argument that the JSDF would not fire the first shot in the Diaoyu Islands. The hotline set up since October 10, 2000 between Tokyo and Beijing supports such an argument. Given that we are mainly talking about possibilities/situations, is this intellectual exercise of determining who fires the first shot worth doing? The answer has to be yes, because by examining the issues and analyzing the facts, one gets a deeper understanding of the whole situation. Such an exercise on the Diaoyu Islands perhaps can also be applied to the even more complicated situation in the South China Sea (SCS), if not elsewhere.