Single-trial visually evoked potentials predict both individual choice and market outcomes

Abstract

A central assumption in the behavioral sciences is that choice behavior generalizes enough across individuals that measurements from a sampled group can predict the behavior of the population. Following from this assumption, the unit of behavioral sampling or measurement for most neuroimaging studies is the individual; however, cognitive neuroscience is increasingly acknowledging a dissociation between neural activity that predicts individual behavior and that which predicts the average or aggregate behavior of the population suggesting a greater importance of individual differences than is typically acknowledged. For instance, past work has demonstrated that some, but not all, of the neural activity observed during value-based decision-making is able to predict not just individual subjects’ choices but also the success of products on large, online marketplaces—even when those two behavioral outcomes deviate from one another—suggesting that some neural component processes of decision-making generalize to aggregate market responses more readily across individuals than others do. While the bulk of such research has highlighted affect-related neural responses (i.e. in the nucleus accumbens) as a better predictor of group-level behavior than frontal cortical activity associated with the integration of more idiosyncratic choice components, more recent evidence has implicated responses in visual cortical regions as strong predictors of group preference. Taken together, these findings suggest a role of neural responses during early perception in reinforcing choice consistency across individuals and raise fundamental scientific questions about the role sensory systems in value-based decision-making processes. We use a multivariate pattern analysis approach to show that single-trial visually evoked electroencephalographic (EEG) activity can predict individual choice throughout the post-stimulus epoch; however, a nominally sparser set of activity predicts the aggregate behavior of the population. These findings support an account in which a subset of the neural activity underlying individual choice processes can scale to predict behavioral consistency across people, even when the choice behavior of the sample does not match the aggregate behavior of the population.