Single Layer & Multi-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Model with Intermediate Variables for Weather Forecasting

Abstract

Weather forecasting has gained attention many researchers from various research communities due to its effect to the global human life. The emerging deep learning techniques in the last decade coupled and the wide availability of massive weather observation data have motivated many researches to explore hidden hierarchical pattern in the large volume of weather dataset for weather forecasting.The purposes of this research are to build a robust and adaptive statistical model for forecasting univariate weather variable in Indonesian airport area and to explore the effect of intermediate weather variable related to accuracy prediction using single layer Long Short Memory Model (LSTM) model and multi layers LSTM model. The proposed forecasting model is an extension of LSTM model by adding intermediate variable signal into LSTM memory block. The premise is that two highly related patterns in input dataset will rectify the input patterns so make it easier for the model to learn and recognize the pattern from the training dataset. In an effort to achieve a robust model for learning and recognizing weather pattern, this research will also explore various architectures such as single layer LSTM and Multiple Layer LSTM (4 layers LSTM). The dataset is weather variable data collected by Weather Underground at Hang Nadim Indonesia airport. This research used visibility as predicted data and temperature, pressure, humidity, dew point as intermediates data. The best model of LSTM in this experiment is multiple layers LSTM and the best intermediate data is pressure variable. Using the pressure variable this model has gained the validation accuracy 0.8060 and RMSE 0.0775.