Simultaneously simulate vertical and horizontal expansions of a future urban landscape: a case study in Wuhan, Central China

Abstract

ABSTRACTWhile there are extensive studies of urban 2D forms, research on the varying geometric features and spatial distribution patterns of urban 3D spaces is comparatively rare. In this paper, we propose a coupled model, known as BPANN-CBRSortCA, which is based on a back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) and case-based reasoning technology with sort cellular automaton (CBRSortCA) to simulate future urban building heights and their spatial distribution. BPANN–CBRSortCA uses BPANN to predict the vertical extrusion of building heights and uses CBRSortCA to simulate horizontal urban expansion. The BPANN–CBRSortCA model is innovative because of its capabilities to simultaneously project urban growth in the vertical and horizontal dimensions. The proposed model also overcomes the limitations of the traditional cellular automata models that cannot simulate ‘diffused’ urban expansion. This research used Wuhan City as a case study to simulate vertical and horizontal urban expansion from 2015 to 2025. The results showed the following: (1) in the next 10 years, new build-up will mainly appear along the edge of Hongshan and Hanyang Districts or will occupy bare land in the form of ‘filling’ and (2) the tallest buildings will be mainly located to the south of East Lake in Hongshan District and on undeveloped land within the city. These simulation results can provide a reference for future urban planning.