Research on application of intelligent computation based LUCC model in urbanization process

Abstract

Global change study is an interdisciplinary and comprehensive research activity with international cooperation, arising in 1980s, with the largest scopes. The interaction between land use and cover change, as a research field with the crossing of natural science and social science, has become one of core subjects of global change study as well as the front edge and hot point of it. It is necessary to develop research on land use and cover change in urbanization process and build an analog model of urbanization to carry out description, simulation and analysis on dynamic behaviors in urban development change as well as to understand basic characteristics and rules of urbanization process. This has positive practical and theoretical significance for formulating urban and regional sustainable development strategy. The effect of urbanization on land use and cover change is mainly embodied in the change of quantity structure and space structure of urban space, and LUCC model in urbanization process has been an important research subject of urban geography and urban planning. In this paper, based upon previous research achievements, the writer systematically analyzes the research on land use/cover change in urbanization process with the theories of complexity science research and intelligent computation; builds a model for simulating and forecasting dynamic evolution of urban land use and cover change, on the basis of cellular automation model of complexity science research method and multi-agent theory; expands Markov model, traditional CA model and Agent model, introduces complexity science research theory and intelligent computation theory into LUCC research model to build intelligent computation-based LUCC model for analog research on land use and cover change in urbanization research, and performs case research. The concrete contents are as follows: 1. Complexity of LUCC research in urbanization process. Analyze urbanization process in combination with the contents of complexity science research and the conception of complexity feature to reveal the complexity features of LUCC research in urbanization process. Urban space system is a complex economic and cultural phenomenon as well as a social process, is the comprehensive characterization of urban society, economy and culture, and is a complex space system formed by society, economy and nature. It has dissipative structure characteristics, such as opening, dynamics, self-organization, non-balance etc. Traditional model cannot simulate these social, economic and natural driving forces of LUCC including main feedback relation from LUCC to driving force. 2. Establishment of Markov extended model of LUCC analog research in urbanization process. Firstly, use traditional LUCC research model to compute change speed of regional land use through calculating dynamic degree, exploitation degree and consumption degree of land use; use the theory of fuzzy set to rewrite the traditional Markov model, establish structure transfer matrix of land use, forecast and analyze dynamic change and development trend of land use, and present noticeable problems and corresponding measures in urbanization process according to research results. 3. Application of intelligent computation research and complexity science research method in LUCC analog model in urbanization process. On the basis of detailed elaboration of the theory and the model of LUCC research in urbanization process, analyze the problems of existing model used in LUCC research (namely, difficult to resolve many complexity phenomena in complex urban space system), discuss possible structure realization forms of LUCC analog research in combination with the theories of intelligent computation and complexity science research. Perform application analysis on BP artificial neural network and genetic algorithms of intelligent computation and CA model and MAS technology of complexity science research, discuss their theoretical origins and their own characteristics in detail, elaborate the feasibility of them in LUCC analog research, and bring forward improvement methods and measures on existing problems of this kind of model. 4. Establishment of LUCC analog model in urbanization process based on theories of intelligent computation and complexity science. Based on the research on abovementioned BP artificial neural network, genetic algorithms, CA model and multi-agent technology, put forward improvement methods and application assumption towards their expansion on geography, build LUCC analog model in urbanization process based on CA model and Agent model, realize the combination of learning mechanism of BP artificial neural network and fuzzy logic reasoning, express the regulation with explicit formula, and amend the initial regulation through self study; optimize network structure of LUCC analog model and methods and procedures of model parameters with genetic algorithms. In this paper, I introduce research theory and methods of complexity science into LUCC analog research and presents LUCC analog model based upon CA model and MAS theory. Meanwhile, I carry out corresponding expansion on traditional Markov model and introduce the theory of fuzzy set into data screening and parameter amendment of improved model to improve the accuracy and feasibility of Markov model in the research on land use/cover change.