Abstract
We use a regional model of atmospheric chemistry and transport to investigate trends in sulphur and nitrogen deposition over Europe during the first half of the 21st century. To assess changes due to climate change, the model was operated with meteorology from a regional climate model simulating present and future climates. The sensitivity of the deposition calculations to uncertainties in the climate projections was explored by using output from three different climate models. Changes in anthropogenic air pollution emissions in Europe were extracted from the gridded RCP4.5 emission inventory. The modelling systems were evaluated by comparing average modelled precipitation, deposition and concentrations over a 20-year period with observations collected around the year 2000. We conclude that the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen containing species will mainly be governed by changes in European emissions of these species over the period 2000–2050. If future emissions follow the pathway of the RCP4.5 scenario, Europe can expect significantly lower deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in 2050 compared to 2000. For reduced nitrogen, large areas of western Europe will receive considerably more deposition in 2050 than in 2000, due to feedback of decreased sulphur concentrations on the atmospheric turnover time of reduced nitrogen. Domain averaged reductions of total deposition from 2000 to 2050 are 63, 41 and 0.9% for sulphur, oxidised- and reduced nitrogen, respectively. Climate change results in decreased wet deposition of sulphur and reduced nitrogen leading to increased atmospheric turnover time of these species. Climate and emission changes lead to decreased atmospheric turnover times of reduced nitrogen but increased atmospheric turnover times of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen. These relations are likely leading to altered source-receptor relations in the future.
Highlights
Deposition of acidifying and eutrophying species in Europe is an on-going, insidious process resulting in large-scale modifications of natural ecosystems
We have studied the relative importance of changes in regional climate and air pollution emissions for the future deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over Europe
We utilised three different climate projections based on the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and air pollution emissions from the RCP4.5 scenario
Summary
Deposition of acidifying and eutrophying species in Europe is an on-going, insidious process resulting in large-scale modifications of natural ecosystems (see e.g. Stevens et al, 2004; Erisman et al, 2008, 2013). Deposition of acidifying and eutrophying species in Europe is an on-going, insidious process resulting in large-scale modifications of natural ecosystems Stevens et al, 2004; Erisman et al, 2008, 2013). Due to the increased awareness of the possibly even greater threat to the environment in Europe Á climate change Á the issue of deteriorating deposition has partly fallen out of fashion since the 1980s when it peaked (Schopp et al, 2003). Climate change and excess deposition are strongly linked. Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), permitting all non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. LANGNER in changes in the distribution and deposition of air pollutants both globally and over Europe
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