Abstract
It is especially indispensable for new businesses or industries to predict the innovation of new technologies. This requires an understanding of how the complex process of innovation, which is accomplished through more efficient products, processes, services, technologies, or ideas, is adopted and diffused in the market, government, and society. Furthermore, detecting “weak signals” (signs) of change in science and technology (S&T) is also important to foretell events associated with innovations in technology. Thus, we explore the dynamic behavior of weak signals of a specific technological innovation using the agent-based simulating tool NetLogo. This study provides a deeper understanding of the early stages of complex technology innovation, and the models are capable of analyzing initial complex interaction structures between components of technologies and between agents engaged in collective invention.
Highlights
Predicting the innovation of new technologies is important when exploring a new business or new industry
Nanotechnology is more appropriately described as the “nanotechnology-converged industry,” a combination of traditional and high-tech industries categorized according to specific applications, such as Information Technology (IT), Bio Technology (BT), Environment Technology (ET), Space Technology (ST), and Culture Technology (CT)
We explored the dynamic behavior of a weak signal of a specific technological innovation using the agent-based simulating tool NetLogo to provide a deeper understanding of the early stages of complex technology innovation
Summary
Predicting the innovation of new technologies is important when exploring a new business or new industry. Evolutionary economists developed a family of models to address technology adoption, diffusion, and increasing returns [1,2,3,4,5], and the role of technical change in industrial dynamics and economic growth [6,7,8,9,10] These models were important in establishing an evolutionary understanding of technical change, their contribution to the understanding of the innovation process has been less significant. We use the second frame to explore the structures of interactions between agents with weak signals (signs) of technological innovation. Hiltunen (2008) [21] aims to develop a deeper theoretical understanding of weak signals For this purpose, a semiotic approach, Peirce’s triadic model of sign in particular, is used as a new starting point for defining weak signals by using the novel concept of future sign, which consists of three dimensions: the signal, the issue, and the interpretation. Foinr nteocvhantiolno.gFiocarlteinchnnoovlaotgioicna,l winenodveateticotne,dwweedaektescitgendawlsetahkrosuiggnhaltsexthtrmouingihntge,xatsmsuinminegd, tahsesummteodbe tetchhenmolotogibcaeltiencnhnovolaotgioicnalteinrmnosv(aTtiIo-tnertmersm),s a(nTdI-tcearmtesg)o, raizneddctahteegmoraizsedemtheergminags iessmueersgifnoglloiswsuinegs a simfoullolawtiionngpaesriimodu.laTtihoensepewrieoadk. sTihgensaelswceaankgsrigonwaltsocbaensgtrowngtosibgenastlrso, nsugcshigansaelsv,esnutcsh. as events
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