Abstract
A Monte Carlo simulation technique was employed to simulate the factors influencing the level of β-glucan content in both hulled (HO) and naked (NO) oat cultivars during cultivation of the crop. Probability density functions were used to model the uncertainty and variability in the input factors. A scenario analysis was subsequently developed to look at the impact of different model assumptions and input parameters. The simulated mean β-glucan level in harvested oats grain was 3.50 and 4.25 g/100 g for hulled (HO) and naked (NO), respectively. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that cultivar selection was the most important input parameter compared to other inputs in determining the final β-glucan level (correlation coefficients of 0.64 and 0.79 for HO and NO, respectively). The analysis also indicated the positive effect of delayed sowing on β-glucan content (correlation coefficients of 0.32 and 0.25 for HO and NO, respectively). Germination and storage factors showed a negative impact on the final β-glucan levels. The scenario analysis shows the applicability of the proposed model for various agronomic practices. This approach establishes a quantitative scientific ranking of factors influencing β-glucan levels during the cultivation of oats.
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