Simulation of the combined effects of solar cycle, quasi‐biennial oscillation, and volcanic forcing on stratospheric ozone changes in recent decades

Abstract

Stratospheric ozone responses to the 11‐year solar flux variation are calculated from two different decadal scale satellite ozone data sets by multiple regression analysis. The results show consistent dipole structures with solar regression coefficients that are positive in midlatitudes and negative in the equatorial lower stratospheric region. Because of the limited duration of the data record, the regression analysis may not completely separate variability from other processes. Other phenomena that could contribute to the observed pattern include the ozone variations associated with the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and with two major volcanic eruptions: El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. A fully interactive NCAR two‐dimensional chemical‐dynamical‐radiative model (Simulation of Chemistry, Radiation, and Transport of Environmentally Important Species (SOCRATES)) is used to investigate the effects of the equatorial QBO and the major volcanic eruptions on the 11‐year solar cycle analysis. When both effects are considered in the model simulation, the resulting ozone solar signal shows a dipole pattern similar to that observed. When the 11‐year solar flux variation is considered as the only external forcing, the resulting ozone solar cycle shows a monopole structure whose maximum is located in the equatorial upper stratosphere and whose response is uniformly positive.