Simulation of precise scale land use change based on the Markov-cellular automata model

Abstract

The Markov-cellular automata is suitable to study complex spatial-temporal geographic system, especially for regional land use, and it has been an important tool and research focus for regional land use change modeling. Previous researchers focused on a few kind of land use type at the regional scale and the data resolution was cursory because land use maps were usually derived from TM image. Few researchers involved precise scale of land use change within a region. To solve this problem, we took the data of land-use survey as a data source maps that include detailed multiple land use types. The case study area was Changping District, which is a rapidly growing area of Beijing. We select the land use map of 2001 and 2005 which include the multiple land use types as data source to simulate the land use of 2012. The results of simulation show that simulation accuracy of multiple land use types is better than them of cursory scale land use types, although it takes a substantial amount of time to run. The statistical result derived from Moran's I and fractal parameter indicates that simulation shows the high spatial stability. The simulation results showed that the number of cropland is keeping on decrease from 2005 to 2012 without the holistic sustainable development measures and severe land policy. This paper represents a good try to local land use change modeling as shown combined Markov chain analysis and cellular automata models. The simulated future land use changes have significant environmental and socioeconomic implications for sustainable region land detailed planning in the study area.