SIMULATION OF PANDEMIC DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES

Abstract

The study is devoted to the development of mathematical models for predicting the incidence of COVID-19 using simulation tools. Methods of modeling the spread of infectious diseases have been studied since the beginning of the twentieth century. In the classical SIR model, the entire population was divided into three parts: «susceptible – infected – recovered». In the 1980s, the intermediate state – «infected, but not yet infectious» was added to the classical model. This model is called SEIR. The spread of the epidemic in both models is described by a system of differential equations, which is solved using numerical methods.
 Significantly new simulation modelling approaches are necessary to forecast evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. This study based on the classical SEIR model («susceptible – infected but not yet infectious – infected – recovered») suggests several methods for developing models: with a long plateau, with two or more waves. The modern tool used for the simulation is Anylogic 8.