Abstract
Generally, metro emergencies could lead to delays and seriously affect passengers’ trips. The dynamic congestion propagation process under metro emergency-caused delays could be regarded as the aggregation of passengers’ individual travel choices. This paper aims to simulate the congestion propagation process without intervention measures under the metro emergency-caused delays, which is integrated with passengers’ route choice behaviors. First, using a stated preference survey data collected from Guangzhou Metro (GZM) passengers, route choice models are developed based on random regret minimization (RRM) theory under metro emergency conditions. Then, a simulation environment is established using graph cellular automata (graph-CA) with augmented GZM network structure, where an ASEIR (advanced susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with time delay is proposed as the evolution rule in graph-CA. Furthermore, considering passengers’ routing preferences, a quantified method for the congestion propagation rate is proposed, and the congestion propagation process on a subnetwork of the GZM network is simulated. The simulation results show that metro congestion during peak periods has a secondary increase after the end of the emergency-caused delays, while the congestion during nonpeak hours has a shorter duration and a smaller influence range. The proposed simulation model could clearly reflect the dynamic process of congestion propagation under metro emergencies.
Highlights
IntroductionMetro emergencies such as power system breakdown, signal system failure, train malfunction and accidents caused by human factors (passengers and operators), are the main causes of the delays in the metro system
Metro emergencies such as power system breakdown, signal system failure, train malfunction and accidents caused by human factors, are the main causes of the delays in the metro system
Only if we understand how the congestion spread in the metro network under metro emergencies without passenger control measures, can we know when, where and how to reduce the impact of metro emergency-caused delays
Summary
Metro emergencies such as power system breakdown, signal system failure, train malfunction and accidents caused by human factors (passengers and operators), are the main causes of the delays in the metro system. The delays can lead to congestions in stations or sections, which could spread from one station (section) to another and congest the lines or even the entire metro network. Understanding the spontaneous congestion propagation process without intervention measures under metro emergency-caused delays, can be beneficial to obtain the influencing range and duration of the emergencies and provide metro operation department valuable references and. Sci. 2019, 9, 4210 decision-making basis in making passenger control measures. Only if we understand how the congestion spread in the metro network under metro emergencies without passenger control measures, can we know when, where and how to reduce the impact of metro emergency-caused delays
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