Abstract
Abstract. Currently, the simulation of land use and land cover change is one of the research focuses in land resource management. Models for simulating this topic have been used by lots of scholars. In the process of experiments, especially using the models, to grasp the characteristics of data has a significant impact on the simulation results. With the changes in policies of land use, the spatial layout has shown a new form. How to simulate the change is one of the focuses in the current Land Resource Management. Therefore, this paper analyzes the current land use of the study area in two aspects: the structure and spatial layout, studying on changes in demand according to the current major changes of policies for land use in the area.; based on the in-depth analysis, by making reasonable choices of land use classification and using the logical regression analysis and ROC curve to select driving factor which is suitable for the characteristics of the study area; a reasonable simulation is then conducted for the impact on the spatial layout for land use change policies through CLUE-S model. The result shows that the exact parameters in line with the characteristics of the study area in CLUE-S mode could simulate the land use spatial layout for many land-use policies such as "construction land uphill", "construction land making room for arable land", "construction land along the river and road development", "key industries land expansion". The results have certain significance on land use changes and land use planning. In order to assist the decision making and improve the efficiency of land use, using this method can help the department of land and resource use to simulate the situation of the land use from the structure and the spatial layout in future according to the demands and the local policies of the land.
Highlights
The simulation of land use cover change is using models and math methods to simulate the changing situations of spatial distribution of land use, which can demonstrate and analyze the spatial variation through the layers and GIS rather than confined to the structured figures for the area, location or related attributes of different land use types.The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) is used to simulate the land use change
The land use change simulation is greatly influenced by land classification and the selection of driving factors corresponding to the different land use types
In the simulation of the land use change based on the land use policies of the study area, this paper use Arc GIS software to analyze the structure and the spatial layout of the current land use situation of the study area at first, in order to analyze the dynamic demand of the land use according to the major land use change policies of the study area in the simulated year
Summary
The simulation of land use cover change is using models and math methods to simulate the changing situations of spatial distribution of land use, which can demonstrate and analyze the spatial variation through the layers and GIS rather than confined to the structured figures for the area, location or related attributes of different land use types. The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) is used to simulate the land use change. The CLUE-S is an improved model for small scale regional application, which is more systemic, is mainly used to study the rationalization of the land use spatial layout and coordination distribution of the variety demands among the different land use types. Where Pi,u is the suitability of land use type u for the location i; the ELASu refers to the conversion elasticity for land use u; ITERu is the iteration variable for land use type u, which marked the relative competitiveness of this type. For all types of land use, when the distribution area is less than the demand area the iteration variable will rise, and when excessive it will down
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