Abstract
Cellular automaton (CA) is an important method in land use and cover change studies, however, the majority of research focuses on the discovery of macroscopic factors affecting LUCC, which results in ignoring the local effects within the neighborhoods. This paper introduces a Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata (LLUC-CA) model, based on local land use competition, land suitability evaluation, demand analysis of the different land use types, and multi-target land use competition allocation algorithm to simulate land use change at a micro level. The model is applied to simulate land use changes at Jinshitan National Tourist Holiday Resort from 1988 to 2012. The results show that the simulation accuracies were 64.46%, 77.21%, 85.30% and 99.14% for the agricultural land, construction land, forestland and water, respectively. In addition, comparing the simulation results of the LLUC-CA and CA-Markov model with the real land use data, their overall spatial accuracies were found to be 88.74% and 86.82%, respectively. In conclusion, the results from this study indicated that the model was an acceptable method for the simulation of large-scale land use changes, and the approach used here is applicable to analyzing the land use change driven forces and assist in decision-making.
Highlights
Land resources are the most fundamental and important resources in human life and production
These results indicated that the model effectively reproduced the area for each land use type in the land use change simulation
The main deviation was located in the northern areas, where results of the forestland and water were very close to the actual land use map both in spatial layout and quantity, and the actual water area was 5.63 km2, while the simulation area reached 5.32 km2
Summary
Land resources are the most fundamental and important resources in human life and production. CA models have been increasingly applied in the simulation and prediction of urban expansion and land use change research, and have obtained significant results, which indicate that a CA model can effectively reflect the complex features of land use evolution at the microscopic pattern [22,23,24,25]. It is a basic feature of a CA that global dynamic behavior can evolve from local rules. In order to discuss the land use change simulation smimetuhloadtiobnapserdoceosns.aInLoLrUdCer-CtoAd,isacnudsstothevelarnifdy uthsee crhealinagbeilsitiymuoflatthioenmmoedtheol,dabsasweedllonasa tLoLpUrCo-vCidAe, athnedotroetvicearilfayntdhetercehlinabicialiltysuopfpthoertmfoordtehle, assimwuellal taisontoapnrdovpirdeedtihcteioornetoicfalal nanddutseechchnaicnaglessu,papcoarstefostrutdhye swimasucloatniodnucatnedd aptrethdeicJtiinosnhoitfalnanNdautisoenachl aTnoguersis,taHcaosliedsatyudRyesworats(choenrediuncatfetedrartetfherereJidnsthoiatasnJiNnsahtiitoanna)l, TwohuircihstiHs aolviderayylRoceasol retx(thenerte. inafter referred to as Jinshitan), which is a very local extent
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