Simulation of Daily Soil Moisture Content and Reconstruction of Drought Events from the Early 20thCentury in Seoul, Korea, using a Hydrological Simulation Model, BROOK

Abstract

To understand day-to-day fluctuations in soil moisture content in Seoul, I simulated daily soil moisture content from 1908 to 2009 using long-term climatic precipitation and temperature data collected at the Surface Synoptic Meteorological Station in Seoul for the last 98 years with a hydrological simulation model, BROOK. The output data set from the BROOK model allowed me to examine day-to-day fluctuations and the severity and duration of droughts in the Seoul area. Although the soil moisture content is highly dependent on the occurrence of precipitation, the pattern of changes in daily soil moisture content was clearly quite different from that of precipitation. Generally, there were several phases in the dynamics of daily soil moisture content. The period from mid-May to late June can be categorized as the initial period of decreasing soil moisture content. With the initiation of the monsoon season in late June, soil moisture content sharply increases until mid-July. From the termination of the rainy season in mid-July, daily soil moisture content decreases again. Highly stochastic events of typhoons from late June to October bring large amount of rain to the Korean peninsula, culminating in late August, and increase the soil moisture content again from late August to early September. From early September until early October, another sharp decrease in soil moisture content was observed. The period from early October to mid-May of the next year can be categorized as a recharging period when soil moisture content shows an increasing trend. It is interesting to note that no statistically significant increase in mean annual soil moisture content in Seoul, Korea was observed over the last 98 years. By simulating daily soil moisture content, I was also able to reconstruct drought phenomena to understand the severity and duration of droughts in Seoul area. During the period from 1908 to 2009, droughts in the years 1913, 1979, 1939, and 2006 were categorized as 'severe' and those in 1988 and 1982 were categorized as 'extreme'. This information provides ecologists with further potential to interpret natural phenomenon, including tree growth and the decline of tree species in Korea.