Simulation of Cooperation Scenarios of BRI-Related Countries Based on a GVC Network

Abstract

The inter-country input–output table is appropriate for presenting sophisticated inter-industry dependencies from a global perspective. Using the above table one can perceive the amount of production resources that sectors obtain from their upstream ones, as well as the number of productive capacities that sectors provide for their downstream ones. In other words, competition/collaboration occurs when sectors share the same providers/consumers because all sectors’ products and services outputted to downstream ones are limited. Thus, inter-industry competition for inputs from upstream sectors, or collaboration on outputs to downstream sectors, may be quantified with input–output matrix transformation. In this paper, a novel analytical framework of inter-industry collaborative relations is established based on the bipartite graph theory and the resource allocation process. The Collaborative Opportunity Index and Collaborative Threat index are designed to quantitatively measure the industrial influence hidden in the topological structure of the global value chain (GVC) network. Scenario simulations are carried out to forecast the potential and trends of international capacity cooperation within Asian, European, and African nations related to the Belt and Road Initiative, respectively.