Economic Shock Transmission through Global Value Chains: An Assessment using Network Analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the role of some key economies in the economic contagion across global value chains using input-output analysis and complex network statistics. The empirical research focuses on China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A range of novel measures were used to measure the nature and extent of global value chain relationships. The empirical results reveal that, because of the high interdependence and interconnectedness in the global value chain networks, the transmission of an economic shock in China and the United States will be fast, wide, and in-depth in the global value chain networks. Sample countries are more exposed to an economic shock in China than a shock in the other four big economic partners, namely the United States, Germany, Japan, and Korea.