Simulation of air temperature and their influence on the potential distribution of Myracrodruon urundeuva, Copernicia prunifera and Cereus jamacaru in the Caatinga

Abstract

Areas in the process of aridification in Caatinga phytogeographic domain in northeastern Brazil increase every year due to human intervention and increase in air temperature. The identification of long-term patterns and air temperature trends in the phytogeographic domain can express climate variability as well as a new phase of adaptation to some plant species. The temperature series from 1951 to 2018 obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction data sets in four conservation areas with native vegetation, located in the North (A1), East (A2), South (A3) and West (A4) regions of this phytogeographic domain, show an increase in temperature between 0.5 and 1.4 °C over the 68-year period with the highest warming occurring in the months of March, April and May. The Maxent model is used to identify the influence of this increase on the presence potential of three species in the Caatinga, Myracrodruon urundeuva (aroeira), Copernicia prunifera (palmeira) and Cereus jamacaru DC (cactus) in the future time interval of 2041 to 2060, considering IPCC projected climate changes. The results show that climate change can lead to a reduction as well as redistribution of the potential areas of occurrence of the three species. Notable changes are: in the case of Carnauba, the high potential area reduces from 25.3% in the present state to 19.6% in 2050, and potential area for Aroeira diminishes in central Bahia and increases in Rio Grande do Norte. The projected changes for all three species are discussed.