Simulation of a Potential Sector Collapse on the Koryaksky Volcano and Volcanic Hazard Assessment for the Yelizovo-Petropavlovsk Agglomeration (Kamchatka)

Abstract

Based on the modeling of a potential sector collapse on the Koryaksky volcano, the most probable direction of movement of a debris avalanche is shown. Periodic fumarole activity of the volcano indicates the circulation of meteoric waters and favorable conditions for the replacement of the volcano bedrock with the development of landslide deposits. On the basis of satellite data, deformations of the earth's surface have been studied. The northeastern slopes of Koryaksky volcano rise relative to the descending southwestern slopes. Taking into account the fact that Avachinsky volcano, which is located 10 km from the Koryaksky volcano, has formed powerful landslide-explosive deposits in the history of its development, the relevance of this study is extremely high. Within the Yelizovo-Petropavlovsk agglomeration (which includes the cities of Yelizovo, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and the adjacent settlements of the Yelizovsky district), which is located in the immediate vicinity of the Koryaksky volcano, more than half of the total population of the Kamchatka region lives and there are enterprises that bring more than half of all financial profit of the region. Therefore, the assessment of hazardous natural processes on the Koryaksky volcano in order to further develop a plan to minimize their negative consequences is critical for the economy of Kamchatka.