SIMULATION METHOD OF FLEET TRANSITION BASED ON TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMICS, AND REGULATION SCENARIO FOR DECARBONIZATION OF SHIPPING

Abstract

International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted an initial strategy for GHG reduction from ships, and the industry has started to consider how to respond to the strategy. To strategically advance decarbonization, it is necessary to develop tools to discuss how to implement the IMO’s strategy quantitatively. This paper proposes a method to simulate fleet transition toward decarbonization based on multiple scenarios of technology, economics, and regulation. The simulation model includes not only technical models such as energy consumption from ships and the GHG emissions but also social models of regulation for operation and operator’s decisionmaking. By inputting future assumptions of ship’s performance, fuel prices, regulation, and transportation demand, the simulation projects a transition of fleet and calculates OPEX, CAPEX, and amount of GHG emissions during the transition. The simulation enables the stakeholders of decarbonization of shipping to analyse and compare future possible strategies of the fleet transition quantitatively.