Simulation based improved seismic fragility analysis of structures

Abstract

The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based seismic fragility analysis (SFA) approach allows defining more realistic relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. However, the approach requires simulating large number of non-linear dynamic analyses of structure for reliable estimate of fragility. It makes the approach computationally challenging. The response surface method (RSM) based metamodeling approach which replaces computationally involve complex mechanical model of a structure is found to be a viable alternative in this regard. An adaptive moving least squares method (MLSM) based RSM in the MCS framework is explored in the present study for efficient SFA of existing structures. In doing so, the repetition of seismic intensity for complete generation of fragility curve is avoided by including this as one of the predictors in the response estimate model. The proposed procedure is elucidated by considering a non-linear SDOF system and an existing reinforced concrete frame considered to be located in the Guwahati City of the Northeast region of India. The fragility results are obtained by the usual least squares based and the proposed MLSM based RSM and compared with that of obtained by the direct MCS technique to study the effectiveness of the proposed approach.