Simulation-based assessment of the climate change impact on future thermal energy load and indoor comfort of a light-weight ecological building across the six climates of Morocco

Abstract

The potential effects of global climate change on buildings are a growing concern worldwide, as rising temperatures can significantly impact their energy performance and indoor thermal comfort conditions. This article examines the impact of global warming across six different climate zones of Morocco by comparing under 2050 RCP8.5 scenario the current and future thermal energy requirements and indoor comfort levels of a light-weight ecologically-designed detached residential house. The reference case study building is in a semi-arid climate of Morocco and empirically validated following the ASHRAE guideline 14, with CV(RMSE) less than 3.2 and NMBE less than 1.4 for the two 38-day monitored thermal zones.The study includes aframework to evaluate the thermal energy needs for maintaining indoor thermal comfort and the overheating intensity triggered by climate change and varying due to spatial scale. Overall, the findings show that Morocco will suffer with differing magnitudes from the temperature increase linked to global warming, which will result in an upsurge in the thermal needs for cooling, particularly in the southern regions of Morocco, and a general reduction in the heating thermal energy needs across the different climates of Morocco, with an annual thermal energy demand change ranging from −2.7% to 17%, depending on the investigated city. This wide variation in thermal energy demand underlines the need to assess the effects of the warming climate in the local context. Besides, under conditions of Air Conditioning (AC) failure, the Indoor Overheating Hours (IOH) increase up to 27% between the current climate conditions and the 2050 climate conditions while indoor temperature changes exceed 1.5 °C during the hottest days of the summer.Strategically, the research study intends to support global efforts to build resilient societies by bringing awareness to how susceptible indoor occupants are to projected warming temperatures. The study also lays the groundwork for prioritizing and assessing adaptation solutions to protect people's health, comfort, and productivity within buildings despite climate change in the most sustainable manner.