Simulation Analysis of Factors Affecting Energy Carbon Emissions in Fujian Province

Abstract

China’s goal of reaching peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 has been a popular research topic in recent years. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are solemn commitments made by the Chinese government to the international community. As a national ecological civilization demonstration area, Fujian province has incorporated peak carbon and carbon neutrality into its overall ecological construction plans. This paper uses the scalable stochastic environmental impact assessment model STIRPAT to quantitatively analyze the relationship between carbon emission intensity and economy, population, energy intensity, energy structure, and industrial structure in Fujian Province from 2001 to 2020, and it uses a Markov transition matrix to predict the ratio of energy structure in the next four years. On the basis of the above-mentioned research, combined with the provincial ecological planning outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan of Fujian Province, three development modes (i.e., the general mode, the energy-saving mode, and the energy consumption mode) are proposed. Finally, according to the model, this paper predicts that the carbon intensity goal of 2025 can be achieved under the general and energy saving modes, while the carbon intensity goal cannot be reached under the energy consumption mode.