Drivers, scenario prediction and policy simulation of the carbon emission system in Fujian Province (China)

Abstract

In response to the looming problems induced by climate change and the Paris Climate Summit, China has committed to capping the carbon-emission peak in 2030 and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. Fujian Province is tasked with a demonstration and leading pilot duty to meet the national goal and international obligation. It aimed to realize a greener economic growth mode and contribute to reducing carbon emissions. This study explored key carbon-emission drivers in Fujian, applying the extended STIRPAT model. Five scenarios were developed to project future carbon emissions. The results pinpointed Fujian's carbon-emission drivers, namely industrial structure (the most important), accompanied by population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and energy structure. The system dynamics model forecasted development scenarios and policy simulation of carbon emissions, which identified and evaluated the optimal path to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the peak carbon target. The baseline scenario failed to attain the peak carbon emissions by 2030. The green scenario was rated as the optimal path to reach peak carbon emissions of 339.922 million tons by 2028. The findings can reinforce the conceptual and empirical basis in formulating the best option in quantitative terms for Fujian to attain carbon emission, peak, and neutrality goals.